🔥 The Iran War Report

Wednesday morning. Grabbed my coffee, sat down, and the first thing I see? Trump says there's a 15 point peace plan on the table. Iran says it's all fake news. Oil is back above $104. And the S&P gave back Monday's gains.

Classic Trump and Stock Market.

We're deep into Week 4 now. The 5 day strike pause is ticking down. Friday is the deadline. And every headline is pulling the market in a different direction. Let me cut through the noise and give you what actually matters today.

The "15 Point Plan"

This is the biggest story of the day. Multiple outlets are reporting that the US has sent Iran a 15 point (some said 14?) proposal to end the war, delivered through Pakistan. Trump went on record saying the US and Iran are "in negotiations right now."

Here's what's reportedly in it: Iran gives up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, caps its nuclear program, stops funding proxies like Hezbollah, and acknowledges Israel's right to exist. In exchange? Full sanctions relief, support for a civilian nuclear energy program at Bushehr, and removal of the "snapback" mechanism for reimposing international sanctions.

Sounds comprehensive right? Here's the problem.

Iran's Parliament Speaker MB Ghalibaf said flat out: "No negotiations have been held with the US." He accused Trump of trying to "manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped."

Behind the scenes though, things might be slightly more nuanced. Axios reports that US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have been in contact with Iran through intermediaries. Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey have all been passing messages. Pakistan has even offered to host direct talks in Islamabad.

So there is a diplomatic movement. Just not the kind Trump is advertising.

What it means for markets: This is why oil bounced back above $104 on Tuesday after Monday's big crash to $99. The market briefly bought the peace narrative on Monday, then realised on Tuesday that Iran is publicly denying everything. Expect this push and pull to continue until Friday's deadline. If you're trading oil, this is a coin flip zone. Don't bet the house either way.

⛽ Oil Snaps Back Hard

Monday's massive relief rally in oil? Gone. Brent crude surged more than 4% on Tuesday to settle around $104.49/barrel. WTI climbed 4%+ to $92.35.

Why the reversal? Simple. Iran denied talks. The Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. And the 5 day pause doesn't mean peace, it means uncertainty.

Here's the shipping data that tells the real story: only 21 tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb 28. Before the war? Over 100 ships per day. Right now, roughly 400 vessels are stuck in a massive backlog in the Gulf of Oman, waiting.

Iran is running a "permission based passage." Countries it considers friendly or neutral get waved through. Japan just got added to the approved list after Iran's Foreign Minister told Kyodo News that the strait is "closed only to ships belonging to our enemies." Turkey, India, and Saudi Arabia (for India bound cargo) have also gotten selective access.

But the US, UK, and Western allied shipping? Still blocked. That's still 20% of the world's daily oil supply sitting in limbo.

What it means for markets: Energy is the ONLY S&P 500 sector in positive territory for March. Let that sink in. While everything else bleeds, energy names keep printing. The selective opening of Hormuz is interesting but it's not enough to normalize supply. Until full access returns, oil stays elevated. The $100 floor on Brent looks solid unless we get a real breakthrough by Friday.

📌 Pete's Take: Friday Is Everything

Alright here's what I think.

We're in a holding pattern. Trump says talks are happening. Iran says they're not. Oil whipsaws $10 in a day. Stocks rally then drop. Nobody knows what's real and what's positioning.

But here's the thing: Friday changes everything. The 5 day pause on power plant strikes expires. Either we get:

Scenario A: Real diplomatic progress. Maybe Iran agrees to engage on the 15 point plan. Maybe Hormuz starts reopening to Western shipping. Oil drops to $80. S&P rips to 6,800+. Relief rally for days.

Scenario B: Talks collapse. Trump follows through on power plant strikes. Iran retaliates by fully shutting Hormuz. Oil spikes past $120. S&P drops to 6,200 or lower. Full escalation mode.

Scenario C (most likely in my opinion): Another extension. Another "pause." More vague claims of progress. Market stays in this $100 $110 oil range and 6,400 6,600 S&P range. The grind continues.

Here's my playbook:

Oil is the compass. Brent below $95 = real de escalation. Above $110 = talks failed. We're at $104 right now. Right in no man's land.

Don't chase. If you missed Monday's rally, don't FOMO in. Wednesday through Friday is pure event risk. Wait for clarity.

Cash and short duration bonds. The 10 year at 4.37% tells you the bond market is stressed. Don't fight it. Stay short duration. Stay liquid.

Watch Pakistan. Islamabad offering to host talks is a new development. If Iran agrees to sit down in a neutral country, that's the first real signal of genuine diplomatic engagement. That's when you start positioning for Scenario A.

We're 72 hours from the most important deadline of this war. Position accordingly.

But one thing I am quite certain is that Trump would not want to drag this too close to US Midterms Elections…. and that is in November.

Stay sharp. Stay liquid.

FREE LIVE WEBINAR THIS THURSDAY

Everything I just wrote about, I will break down live on Thursday night for everyone.

The Trump U-turn. What it means for oil and markets. What to do with your portfolio now. And what the next move looks like whether this ends in peace or drags on further.

This is open to everyone. Free. No experience needed.

📅 Thursday 26 Mar 🕘 9pm sharp

🔗 https://us06web.zoom.us/j/83531931079?pwd=GS7R78hHTTt91l8bv1jCYyKIOQLBjV.1

See you Thursday. 🙏

🫡

Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.