A High Growth Giant Trading Like a Value Stock

🟢 Circle Internet Group (CRCL)

Circle’s stock has finally cooled off after its explosive post-IPO run, sliding back toward its original listing price. For a company growing this quickly, that kind of pullback doesn’t happen often and it’s got investors leaning in.

Despite the rough patch in share price, Circle’s underlying business hasn’t missed a beat. USDC, its flagship stablecoin, continues to see massive adoption, and overall financial performance remains strong across revenue, earnings, and cash generation. In short: the fundamentals look nothing like the chart.

🧮 Why This Pullback Looks More Like Opportunity Than Trouble

💵 Reserve Income: Still the Engine of the Business

Circle earns most of its revenue from interest on the reserves backing USDC. Yes, interest rates have been drifting lower this year but USDC’s circulation has been rising even faster. This creates a powerful offset: even if yields compress, the base they’re applied to keeps expanding.

That’s why reserve income is proving much more resilient than many expected. With USDC’s market footprint growing from tens to many tens of billions, even conservative growth estimates show reserve-related revenue climbing meaningfully over the next several years.

By some models, Circle at today’s market cap trades at low-single-digit multiples of projected reserve income just a few years out.

🚀 The Quiet Beast: ‘Other Revenue’ Is Surging

While USDC is the main revenue contributor, Circle’s newer initiatives are turning heads:

• EURC, its euro-backed stablecoin, is already the global leader in its category.

• Yield-based products like USDY are gaining traction as institutions explore tokenized money-market-style instruments.

• Arc Network, Circle’s blockchain infrastructure, aims to become the “operating system” for global digital finance, which is a bold move with potentially huge upside if adoption sticks.

All of these fall under the “Other Revenue” bucket and that category has been growing at hypergrowth speed. It’s still early days, but the trajectory suggests these segments could become major contributors far sooner than the market appreciates.

Think of Circle not as “just a stablecoin issuer,” but as an expanding digital-finance platform.

📉 So Why the Stock Drop? It’s Not Fundamentals.

The recent sell-off appears far more connected to:

• crypto-market volatility,

• macro uncertainty, and

• the typical post-IPO noise like insider unlocks.

None of these have anything to do with Circle's long-term earnings power.
That disconnect is exactly what creates opportunity. Long-term investors often get their best prices when sentiment is temporarily out of sync with reality.

🧭 What I’m Watching Next

• USDC Adoption: More circulation = more reserve income, regardless of rate shifts.

• Arc Network & EURC Traction: These could transform Circle’s identity from a single-revenue-stream operation into a diversified fintech ecosystem.

• Interest Rate Trend: Lower yields matter but only if USDC adoption slows. So far, it hasn’t.

✅ Pete’s Take

Circle sits right at the intersection of fintech and blockchain and that’s exactly where some of the biggest opportunities of the next decade are likely to emerge.

Right now, CRCL looks like:

• a value stock based on reserve income,

• a growth stock based on stablecoin adoption, and

• a call option on becoming a major financial-infrastructure player.

That combination doesn’t come around often.

For long-term investors, this pullback looks less like a red flag and more like a tactical moment to build exposure.

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Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.