a new challenger

Monday morning. Week two begins.

👑 Iran Has a New Supreme Leader. And He Is a Hardliner.

Overnight, Iran's Assembly of Experts officially named Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the assassinated Ali Khamenei, as the country's new supreme leader.

This is the man Trump called "unacceptable" just days ago. The IRGC and Iran's military have already pledged full allegiance to him.

Why does this matter for markets? Because it signals that Iran is not collapsing from within. The regime has stabilised its leadership line. There is no power vacuum. There is no internal coup coming. The new supreme leader has deep ties to the Revolutionary Guards, which means the military chain of command is intact and the war posture is not changing.

This also means like the war will drag on longer as Iran leadership refuses to collapse

Trump wanted regime change, but he got something different. 🎯

🛢️ Oil Just Crossed $100. And Then Kept Going.

This is the number that everyone feared. It happened overnight.

WTI crude spiked as high as $113 per barrel in early Asian trading this morning. Brent hit $119 before pulling back. Both benchmarks are now trading around $100 to $105 after reports emerged that G7 finance ministers are discussing a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves with the IEA.

That reserve release discussion caused oil to pull back from its peak. But even after the pullback, oil is still up more than 17% in a single day. For context, oil was at $67 per barrel before this war started 9 days ago. It is now trading above $107. That is a 60% increase in under two weeks.

The trigger? Israel struck Iranian oil storage depots over the weekend. Footage of a massive fire at the Shahran oil depot in Tehran was all over social media. Meanwhile, Gulf producers including Qatar and UAE are being forced to cut output as Iranian drone attacks keep hitting their energy infrastructure.

Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed. No timeline from the White House. Gas prices at US pumps are now tipped to cross $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022.

Where is the US Navy escort that Trump promised? I think we all need it now.

📉 Asian Markets Are Melting. US Futures Are Ugly.

Here is the market damage from this morning:

Japan's Nikkei: down more than 7% South Korea's Kospi: down over 8%, circuit breaker triggered again. This is their second trading halt in 4 sessions. Hong Kong Hang Seng: down nearly 3% India's Sensex: down 3%, rupee hitting near record lows

US futures right now before the open: Dow futures: down over 1,000 points S&P 500 futures: down 2% Nasdaq futures: down 2.3%

Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni raised his probability of a US stock market crash this year to 35% this morning. That is not someone being dramatic. That is a serious analyst pricing in serious risk.

Gold pulled back slightly to around $5,100 as investors sold some positions to cover losses elsewhere. That is normal in a sharp selloff. Do not read it as gold being broken.

🧠 Pete's Take: We Just Crossed the Line Everyone Was Watching

$100 oil was the number. Every analyst, strategist, economist had it circled as the level where this goes from "painful" to "potentially recessionary."

We crossed it this morning. But it is NOT end of the world

Here is what you need to understand now.

The G7 strategic reserve release discussion is the first real policy response we have seen from the global community. If they coordinate a release, oil pulls back sharply. Markets bounce. That is the near term relief trade to watch today.

But a strategic reserve release is just a temporary fix. The reserves exist to buy time. They do not reopen the Strait. They do not stop the bombing. They do not change the fundamental supply picture.

The real question this week is whether the Trump and Xi summit on 31 Mar becomes an emergency diplomatic channel. China is the world's biggest oil importer. They are bleeding right now. At $107 oil, China's economy takes a serious hit. That gives Beijing a massive incentive to push hard for de-escalation. Watch for any signal from China this week that they are moving from words to action.

Pete's Take: if you built it with income, resilience, and real cash flow in mind, you are holding up better than most. Energy continues to be the only sector that is working. Defence is holding. Gold is your insurance.

If you are sitting on cash and feeling nervous, this is not the moment to make dramatic moves. Volatility at this level creates both the biggest mistakes and the biggest opportunities. Patience is a strategy. 💪

Position. Don't predict. More updates as the day develops.

And this Thurs, there will be an Invest with Pete Public Live Webinar!

Keep a lookout for it!

Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.