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Hi {{first_name}} ,
I keep thinking back to how this whole US-Iran war started in Feb. Nobody knew it would still be running 4 months later. But here we are, and the market keeps finding ways to surprise us. Let's get into it.
🛢 OIL UPDATE
Oil is sliding hard. WTI dropped back to around 70 dollars a barrel, and Brent fell to roughly 72. That is nearly back to where prices were before the war even started in Feb.
Why the drop? The Strait of Hormuz is reopening. Shipping traffic through that waterway has picked up fast after the US and Iran agreed to pause strikes ahead of fresh peace talks. Saudi Arabia has also started loading tankers again at one of its biggest export terminals.
Oil spiking on fear, then crashing on peace headlines. If you bought energy names purely on the war premium without a plan to take profit, this is your reminder. The peace trade rotation is real and it moves fast. Tech and consumer names tend to bounce hardest when the fear unwinds.
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📈 WALL STREET RALLY
Big day for stocks yesterday. The Dow closed above 52000 for the first time ever. The S&P jumped over 1%, and the Nasdaq surged about 2%. Tech led the charge, with Alphabet up nearly 5% on its first day inside the Dow, replacing Verizon. Tesla popped more than 8%.
This comes right after a rough patch for tech. Nasdaq was down sharply for the week before this, so Monday's bounce was a relief rally more than anything.
One green day after a rough stretch does not mean the storm has passed. Quarter-rebalancing by big funds is also playing a part here, not just genuine conviction. I am not chasing this. Boring is beautiful. If you already own the quality names, let them run. If you are jumping in now because you are scared of missing out, ask yourself if you are investing or just reacting.
🇺🇸 WHAT COMES NEXT
The US and Iran are set to restart peace talks this week, with technical teams already in Switzerland and Doha ready to engage. At the same time, markets are bracing for Thu, when the June jobs report drops. Economists expect a softer number than May's, which could shape what the Fed does next.
Watch the jobs number, not the headlines. A weak print could actually be good for stocks if it pushes the Fed toward cutting rates. This is not a normal week. Geopolitics, a holiday shortened trading schedule with markets closed Fri for July 4, and a major data release all landing together. Stay nimble.
On other news….
I'm currently down with a bad bout of infection (you can read more about it there https://t.me/realinvestwithpete/5723)
The picture is not sideway… i’m just laying down 😭
For my SMG and DMG members, since I am still resting up, I will be sending out recorded videos this week instead of our usual livestreams until I recover fully. Thank you for your patience and support! 🙏
Meanwhile check this out.
The largest IPO in history is coming. Where will all that liquid money go?
SpaceX just filed for an IPO valued at up to $1.75 trillion. When that much capital becomes liquid all at once, where it goes next is the big question.
Meanwhile, spring art auctions in NY cleared $2.5 billion, with 15+ new artist records.
Prized, physical assets with fixed and scarce supply. When the ultra-wealthy get liquid, it’s one of the markets they reach for to diversify.
Masterworks lets you into that art market without needing the nine figures. Its members invest in shares of blue-chip artwork by artists like Banksy, Basquiat and Warhol.
The track record to-date?
$1.3B deployed across 500+ artworks
29 sales to date
Net annualized returns like 16.5%, 17.6%, and 17.8%, not including those unsold*
*Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. See important disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.
Pete
Happy Hunting!
Pete
Invest with Pete
🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!
The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.
