Big News This Week!

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We’ve got a huge earnings week ahead. If you’re positioning trades or watching the market closely, this one’s worth paying attention to.

Here’s what’s coming up:
🔸Pinduoduo ($PDD) – Mon
🔸 CrowdStrike ($CRWD) – Wed
🔸 Nvidia ($NVDA) – Wed
🔸 Alibaba ($BABA) – Fri

But let’s be honest , everyone’s watching Nvidia.

💥 Nvidia: The One to Watch

Nvidia’s earnings this week could literally steer the entire market, especially with how AI and semis have been leading all year.

Here’s what the market expects for Q2:
• Revenue: $46.1B (up 50% YoY)
• Net Income (non-GAAP): $24.5B
• Gross Margin: 72%

But forget the headline numbers, here’s what really matters to us as investors and traders:

🔍 Three Key Things to Watch

1️⃣ China and the H20 Chips
Earlier this year, the US banned Nvidia’s H20 chip shipments to China, which created a potential $8B hit to revenue. That ban was just lifted but only after Q2 ended. So Q3 and Q4 could get a boost. But that is thrown into disarray after China told companies not to buy NVDA chips??

The big question now:
Can Nvidia pass the new 15% “tariff fee” to customers?
Will Chinese buyers still want these chips despite rising political tension?

2️⃣ Gross Margins Recovery
Margins dropped from 78.9% to 71.3% because of lower margin H20 chips and delays with Blackwell.
Management previously said they want to return to 75%+ margins in H2.
Will that still hold now that H20 shipments are resuming?

3️⃣ Production Roadmap: Blackwell & Rubin
With heavy reliance on TSMC and Arizona plant still ramping up, the market will be watching closely for any update on Blackwell Ultra production, GB200 NVL72 deployment, and the upcoming Rubin platform.

🧠 Options Market Setup

Heading into earnings, option flow looks bullish.
Put/Call ratio sits at 0.57, and IV is elevated at 48% (compared to 26% HV), so the market expects a move, just not a crazy one.

IV Rank is lowish (22), so premiums aren’t too inflated. That could present some interesting earnings trades if you know what to look for.

👀 What About the Rest?

• CrowdStrike ($CRWD) – expected EPS down 20% again, margins and ARR under pressure after last year’s outage
• Alibaba ($BABA) – Friday. E-commerce might dip as food delivery costs rise, even though travel is recovering
• Pinduoduo ($PDD) – also on Wednesday. Lesser watched, but worth tracking

I’ll be watching these closely and will share my personal views and potential setups in the next Invest With Pete Live Webinar

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The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.