deadline tonight

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Week 6 of the Iran war begins. And it begins with a ticking clock.

I spent the weekend watching the headlines pile up, and honestly, today feels like one of those days where every investor needs to pay attention. Because what happens in the next 12 hours could reshape the energy trade for the rest of the month.

Let me walk you through it.

🕐 TRUMP'S HORMUZ DEADLINE EXPIRES TONIGHT

This is the big one. President Trump has set an 8pm (US time) deadline tonight for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to strike Iran's energy infrastructure if a deal is not reached. He has been blunt about it. In an interview, Trump said: "If they don't make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there."

This deadline has been extended twice already. Trump first gave Iran 48 hours back on Mar 21, then pushed it to Apr 6 after Tehran reportedly asked for more time. So there is a real question about whether this is another bluff or whether the U.S. actually follows through this time.

Just last night, he posted on Truth Social, and you can see he is very angry

The Strait remains effectively closed. Before the war, roughly 130 ships a day passed through. Now it is six or fewer, transiting in coordination with Iran. That is a 95% drop in traffic through the world's most important oil chokepoint.

There are some small signs of movement. India confirmed it has resumed purchasing oil from Iran for the first time since 2019, and a French container ship crossed the Strait, apparently the first European vessel to do so since the war began. Ships from Japan and Oman also made the crossing.

Pete's Take 👇 

Watch what happens, not what is said. We have seen two deadline extensions already. If Trump extends again, oil dips and risk assets bounce. If he follows through on striking energy sites, we are looking at oil north of $120 and possibly $130. Either way, tonight sets the tone for the trading week. Position accordingly.

⚠️ IRAN NAMES U.S. TECH GIANTS AS ASSASSINATION TARGETS

This one caught my attention. Iran named 18 U.S. tech and defense companies as targets for further assassination attempts. The list includes Palantir, META, Google, and Microsoft.

This is a new dimension to the conflict. We are now seeing the war extend beyond the battlefield into the corporate world. Whether Iran has the capability to act on these threats is debatable, but the signal is clear: Tehran wants to raise the cost of this war for American companies and their leadership.

Pete's Take 👇

Do not overreact to this. The threat is designed to create fear, and the actual risk to these companies' operations is minimal. But it does add another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile market. If you hold big tech, this is noise, not signal. Stay the course.

🎯 Pete's Investment Takeaway

The Hormuz deadline expires tonight and the entire energy trade hinges on what happens next.

If Trump extends again, expect oil to pull back toward $100 and risk assets to rally hard. If he follows through on striking Iran's energy infrastructure, brace for oil above $120, higher gas prices, and a fresh wave of inflation fears that pushes rate cut expectations further out.

Winners this week: Energy (XLE, XOM, CVX), Defence (LMT, NOC, RTX), Gold (GLD). Losers: Airlines, cruise lines, consumer discretionary, small caps.

Position. Don't predict.

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Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.