happening tonight

The market has had a wild few days. Let me cut through the noise and tell you exactly what matters right now.

📊 Where Markets Stand Today

After Monday's brutal 800 point Dow selloff driven by AI disruption fears and tariff confusion, markets bounced back strongly on Tuesday. The S&P 500 climbed 0.77% to 6,890, the Nasdaq jumped 1.04% and the Dow recovered 370 points to close at 49,174.

So we are still slightly in the red for 2026 overall but Tuesday showed us something important. When the panic settles, buyers come back. That is a healthy sign.

Pete's Take : The market right now is like a rubber band being stretched by 3 forces simultaneously. Tariff uncertainty. AI overheating fears. US-Iran tensions. Every time one of those forces eases, markets snap back. The key is not to get shaken out during the stretch.

🤖 Tonight Is the Biggest Market Event of 2026 So Far

Nvidia reports earnings tonight after market close. This is not just about one company. This is the report that tells us whether the entire AI boom is on track or whether cracks are appearing.

Here is what Wall Street is expecting. Revenue of around $65 to $66 billion for the quarter. That would be roughly 67% growth YoY. Nvidia has beaten expectations 12 quarters in a row. Prediction markets are pricing in a 94.5% chance they beat again tonight.

But the number is not what really matters. What matters most is what CEO Jensen Huang says about the future. Specifically 3 things: whether demand for their next generation Blackwell chips remains strong, whether China sales might resume (currently zero in their guidance and would be pure upside), and what he says about their upcoming Vera Rubin chip launching later this year.

If all 3 are positive, expect a strong rally in tech tomorrow morning.

Pete's Take : I think Nvidia beats. The hyperscalers aka Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, have all confirmed they are spending close to $700 billion on AI infrastructure this year. That money has to go somewhere. And most of it goes through Nvidia. Watch this tonight. I am staying up.

🥇🛢️ Gold and Oil: The Quiet Warning Signals

Gold is trading around $5,185 per ounce today. Oil is hovering just below $67 per barrel for WTI. Both are elevated and both are telling you the same thing. The market is quietly nervous.

The US-Iran situation has not gone away. Iran has been signalling some new nuclear concessions to try and avert a strike, but the US military buildup in the Middle East continues. The US just sent 12 F-22 fighter jets to the region.

For context, the last time they sent F-22s to the area, it was the week before they bombed the nuclear facilities.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest wild card for energy prices globally.

If a deal gets done? Oil drops back below $60.

A strike happens with limited impact? Oil spikes $15 to $20 short term.

Strait gets blocked? We are looking at $100 plus oil and serious global inflation.

That last scenario is unlikely but not impossible and the market is pricing in a small but real probability of it happening.

Gold is your hedge against all of the above. It has been holding strong above $5,000 for a reason.

So What Should You Actually Do?

Watch Nvidia tonight. It sets the tone for the whole market this week.

Keep an eye on the Iran headlines. Any sudden escalation will move oil and gold fast.

Do not panic on red days. The buyers always come back when quality companies are on sale.

And if you have zero hedges in your portfolio right now, this is a good week to think about adding some protection.

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The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.