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How is Trump’s Economic Shake-Up Affecting Markets?
Who Wins and Who Loses?
President Donald Trump has kicked off his new term with an unprecedented wave of executive orders—more than 100 directives in what insiders are calling a "shock-and-awe" strategy. These sweeping changes will impact immigration, energy, trade, diversity policies, and more. While these measures aim to deliver on campaign promises, they’re also set to shake up markets.
Here’s a breakdown of the major policies, their implications, and how they could impact your portfolio.
1. Immigration and Border Security
What’s Changing:
Illegal immigration declared a national emergency.
Refugee resettlements suspended and asylum for illegal border crossings ended.
Challenge to birthright citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants.
Troops deployed to the US-Mexico border to ramp up security.
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/34e1ac42-91ba-466c-afa5-eb5158e170f0/image.png?t=1737437133)
Market Impact:
Winners: Companies tied to border infrastructure, such as Caterpillar, may benefit from increased demand for construction, and defense companies such as Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics.
Losers: Industries relying on immigrant labor—like agriculture and hospitality—could face higher costs and labor shortages.
2. Energy Policies: “Drill, Baby, Drill”
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/a4bb7e02-34d0-49d5-85ca-b91d389e7b05/image.png?t=1737437240)
What’s Changing:
A national energy emergency declared to boost fossil fuel production.
Rollback of EV mandates, subsidies, and incentives for renewable energy.
Tariffs on global battery imports to stimulate U.S. production.
Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement.
Market Impact:
Winners:
Oil and gas giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron stand to gain from deregulation and increased exports.
LNG exporters like Cheniere Energy could see growing demand.
Losers:
EV manufacturers like Tesla and renewable energy companies may face headwinds from reduced subsidies and incentives.
Battery material costs may rise, impacting EV production and sales.
3. Trade and Tariffs
What’s Changing:
Proposed tariffs: 10% on global imports, 60% on Chinese goods, and 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico.
Creation of an “External Revenue Service” to manage tariffs.
Agencies directed to assess trade deals like the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/85294089-b65e-4b3a-9e46-0d4a97433faf/image.png?t=1737437593)
Market Impact:
Winners: Domestic manufacturing could benefit as tariffs incentivize U.S. production.
Tesla: So while Tesla might be impacted on the Pro-Oil policies, the tariffs could actually benefit it as Tesla might be the only EV maker that produces domestically in US while the others are mostly imports.
Losers:
Exporters like Boeing and Caterpillar may face retaliatory tariffs.
Retailers like Walmart could experience higher costs, potentially passed on to consumers.
What’s Changing:
DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) programs cut.
Policies recognizing only two sexes—male and female—implemented.
Restrictions on transgender participation in sports and gender-affirming care.
Market Impact:
Workforce Disruption: Changes may impact corporate culture and lead to legal challenges.
Healthcare Impacts: Reduced demand for gender-related medical care could affect companies like CVS Health.
Insurance Policy Shifts: With this shift from DEI, it might also create uncertainty for insurers like UNH
5. Federal Bureaucracy Overhaul
![](https://media.beehiiv.com/cdn-cgi/image/fit=scale-down,format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=80/uploads/asset/file/d295ece2-5f5b-41e5-b027-257eb0de6d51/image.png?t=1737437782)
What’s Changing:
Hiring freeze on federal workers, except for essential roles.
Remote work for federal employees ended to force a return to offices.
Market Impact:
Winners: Office real estate firms like Realty Income and Simon Property Group may see a boost as federal workers return to physical offices.
Losers: Tech companies benefiting from remote work adoption may face slower growth.
Sponsorship: If you want to be more updated with news about the US businesses, check out this
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Summary: Who Wins and Who Loses?
Likely Winners:
Oil & Gas: Benefiting from deregulation and export incentives.
Domestic Manufacturing: Supported by tariffs and trade protections.
Construction & Defense: Infrastructure projects, especially tied to border security, may surge.
Likely Losers:
Renewable Energy & EVs: Reduced incentives and tariffs on imports could create challenges.
Retail & Consumer Goods: Higher import costs may hurt profit margins.
Immigration-Dependent Sectors: Agriculture and hospitality may struggle with labor shortages.
What Should Investors Do?
Trump’s aggressive executive actions introduce both opportunities and risks:
Diversify into industries likely to benefit, like fossil fuels and domestic manufacturing.
Hedge Risks in sectors like retail, EVs, and agriculture that may face challenges.
Stay informed as policies evolve—some directives may face legal hurdles, creating further volatility.
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Pete
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The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.