Jackson Hole in One

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Hey everyone!

Big week ahead: Powell is speaking at Jackson Hole, and honestly… September could get scary for investors depending on how this plays out.

Let me explain why this is so important 👇

1. Market expects a rate cut… but it’s getting messy

Right now, the market is pricing in over 84% certainty of a Fed rate cut in September.
Some are even forecasting multiple cuts ahead.

But here’s the twist — inflation is still hot.
We just saw a spike in wholesale prices (PPI) that caught everyone off guard, and tariffs are quietly pushing input costs higher. That’s a big problem if the Fed is about to cut rates.

2. Powell is stuck — and everyone knows it

This is one of those moments where he can’t win.

💥 If he cuts: Markets will love it short-term, but inflation could come roaring back.
💣 If he holds: Markets will freak out, because they’ve already “bought the rumour”.

This week, Powell’s speech is basically a tightrope walk — say too much or too little, and we could see wild swings in the market. And it doesn’t help that Trump is hitting him hard to cut rates.

3. Why September could be ugly

Inflation hasn’t gone away. Oil prices are climbing again.
And the Fed is under both market pressure and political pressure.

If Powell doesn’t reassure markets at Jackson Hole, we could see a sharp sell-off in September. This isn’t just another Fed speech — it’s a test of confidence.

4. What I’m watching (and doing)

✅ I’m staying nimble
✅ Keeping some exposure to rate-sensitive sectors like real estate, tech and consumer discretionary
✅ But also ready to rotate to defensives fast if the tone turns hawkish

Powell’s Dilemma at a Glance

🎥 Replay: Last Week’s Livestream

If you missed it, I talked about all this in detail, plus revealed my favourite sector right now and what I’m personally doing with my portfolio during this uncertain times

BUT — the replay comes down tonight. (SMG members will still have access!)
This one’s worth your time.

👉 Watch it now before it’s gone:
https://investwithpete.teachable.com/courses/smg/lectures/62730054

Whatever Powell says… be ready to act, not just react.

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Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.