jobs again

Author

Pete Tan
September 29, 2025

📈 Macro Snapshot: What’s Coming Up

Tuesday
JOLTS Job Openings (Aug): Est: 7.15M | Prev: 7.18M
CB Consumer Confidence (Sep): Est: 95.3 | Prev: 97.4

Wednesday
ADP Nonfarm Employment (Sep): Est: 53K | Prev: 54K
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Est: 52.0 | Prev: 52.0

Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims: Est: 229K | Prev: 218K

Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep): Est: 51K | Prev: 22K
Unemployment Rate (Sep): Est: 4.3% | Prev: 4.3%

One surprise above or below expectations could trigger outsized market moves. The Fed is already in cautious mode and the bar for surprises is low.

📰 Growth Surge: Reality vs Expectation

You might’ve seen the recent headline about the economy growing at its fastest pace in years. That kind of figure forces us to recalibrate.

Here’s what makes it noteworthy:

Strong GDP growth puts pressure on the Fed to stay vigilant
If underlying momentum is broad, not just inventory or base effects, we could see inflation risks reemerge
Markets will be watching how the Fed balances growth with its inflation-fighting mandate

That said, growth numbers often come with caveats. Seasonal adjustments, inventory swings, or revisions could temper the headline.

🧭 My Take & What to Watch

  1. The Fed’s narrative remains key. Even if growth is robust, they may stick with “higher-for-longer” guidance if inflation stays sticky.

  2. Data over tone. A strong NFP or JOLTS print could shift sentiment quickly even if officials sound steady.

  3. Breadth matters. Watch whether growth is spread across sectors like services and manufacturing or just a few areas.

  4. Revisions risk. Preliminary numbers often change. Don’t anchor too heavily on first prints.

Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.