Memorial Day in the US. Markets are closed tonight.

Trump said the US is in the "final stages" of negotiations with Iran. That is the biggest geopolitical headline going into this week.

US stock futures jumped on Mon morning on the back of this news. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries a large portion of the world's oil supply, could be reopened sooner than markets expected. That is a major shift for energy prices and inflation expectations.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio was measured about it, saying progress has been made but more work remains. Iran's side said differences are still deep. So we are not popping champagne yet.

Pete's Take 👇 This is the single most important thing for your portfolio right now. If a deal closes, oil prices drop fast, and we rotate hard. Airlines, cruise lines and consumer stocks will bounce quickly on any confirmation. If talks collapse, we stay in the energy trade. Position for the peace trade, but do not bet the house on timing it perfectly.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,473 on Fri. That is close to an all-time high. Eight consecutive winning weeks, the longest streak since Dec 2023.

The Dow closed at 50,580, also near record territory. Nasdaq finished at 29,481. Energy led the charge last week, up over 7%, while the broader market was more measured.

The market has essentially recovered everything it lost earlier this year and then some. Sentiment is strong. VIX is sitting at a calm 16.7.

Pete's Take 👇 Eight straight winning weeks sounds fantastic. And it is. But at all-time highs going into a holiday-shortened week, with big data and big earnings ahead, this is not the week to be chasing. The market has already priced in a lot of good news. Watch before you act.

Nvidia just crushed their quarterly numbers and raised their dividend again. The market barely blinked because it has come to expect Nvidia to beat. That is how dominant this company has become.

But the real action is this week.

Marvell Technology is up 120% year to date and reports Wed. Salesforce, Dell Technologies and Costco also report.

And on Thu, PCE inflation data drops. That is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and it will move markets.

Dell just hit a record high. The AI infrastructure trade is very much alive.

Pete's Take 👇 Salesforce is the one to watch closely. It has not joined the AI party the way Nvidia and Marvell have. If they finally show strong AI-driven revenue numbers, that signals the boom is broadening beyond chipmakers. A broader AI rally is healthier and more sustainable. Watch for that on Wed night.

And if you like alternative investment, take a look at this.

How High Are Art Prices Today? The Latest from Spring Auctions…

$85,800,000 for a Rothko

$98,385,000 for ANOTHER Rothko
$107,585,000 for a Brancusi sculpture
$181,200,000 for a Pollock

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Obviously, art investing is out of reach for most people.

But since 2017, Masterworks has taken a data-driven approach to investing in art, making it accessible to individual investors.

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To see Masterworks track record of sold works and inquire about membership, our subscribers can use this unique link.

^{*According to Masterworks data. Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. See important Reg A disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.}

Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.