mines???

Good morning everyone 🌅

Wednesday. Halfway through the week. And this war just got more complicated overnight.

Yesterday Trump said it was "very complete, pretty much." Then, Hegseth said it was "the most intense day of strikes yet." Both said on the same day. If that sounds contradictory, that is because it is.

Let me unpack what actually happened Tuesday and what it means for your money.

💣 THE MOST INTENSE DAY YET... WHILE TRUMP SAYS IT IS NEARLY OVER

Defense Secretary Hegseth told reporters: "Today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran. The most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes, intelligence more refined and better than ever." (I don’t know about you but this doesn’t sound like the war is done at all)

He also confirmed the US has now struck more than 5,000 targets since the war began.

At the same time, Iran fired back hard: "Iran will determine when the war ends, and added that negotiations with the US are not "on the table."

So we have Trump saying nearly done. Hegseth launching the biggest strikes yet. And Iran saying they decide when this ends. Three separate messages, zero alignment. This is what Day 11 looks like.

⚠️ IRAN STARTS MINING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

This is the big one. The development that nobody wanted to see.

Iran has begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to people familiar with US intelligence reporting. The mining is not extensive yet, with a few dozen laid in recent days. But Iran still retains upward of 80 to 90% of its small boats and mine layers, meaning it could feasibly lay hundreds of mines in the waterway.

Trump responded on Truth Social demanding the mines be removed immediately, threatening consequences "at a level never seen before." Within minutes, he confirmed the US had already destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait.

But here is the problem. The US Navy has not yet escorted a single oil tanker through the Strait, the White House confirmed. "I can confirm that the US Navy has not escorted a tanker or a vessel at this time," WH Press Secretary said.

So the US is sinking mine-layers but no commercial ship has successfully transited the Strait under US protection yet. 😢 

Tanker traffic has dropped to near zero. Over 150 ships are anchored outside the strait to avoid risks. This disruption now affects about 20% of the world's daily oil supply and significant volumes of LNG.

Pete's Take 👇

Mines change the equation completely. Bombs and missiles close a port temporarily. Mines can close a shipping lane for weeks or months even after a war ends. Professional mine clearing is slow, dangerous, and painstaking work (Just ask Afghanistan, Iraq and Vietnam) because people don’t even remember where the mines were. If Iran manages to lay a significant number before the US clears them, the Strait stays functionally closed long after any ceasefire.

📊 WHAT MARKETS DID ON TUESDAY

Market closed slightly lower after the major green day.

Oil ended Tuesday around $80 WTI, still well above pre-war levels but a long way from the $119 peak we saw Monday morning.

Now the big number drops today. CPI for February is out today. Headline inflation has recently been around 2.5%, driven largely by the dramatic surge in oil prices above $100 per barrel. Markets are expecting 2.5% YoY. If it comes in hotter, the Fed rate cut hopes that have been propping up stocks could evaporate fast. If it comes in cooler, you could see another relief rally.

Pete's Take 👇

We have the undeniable reality that Iran just started mining the most important oil chokepoint in the world. The market is choosing optimism. Fine. But position carefully. Do not chase this bounce until you see what CPI says and whether those mines get cleared.

📈 WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK

CPI data today. Expected: 2.5% year on year. Anything above 2.7% is a problem.

Iran mine situation: how fast can the US clear or neutralise them? This is the single most important variable for oil prices right now.

First US Navy tanker escort: the moment a ship successfully transits the Strait under US protection, oil drops hard and stocks rally hard. Watch for that headline.

Trump-Xi summit on 31 Mar. Still the best diplomatic off-ramp available. China has been quiet. Too quiet. Wonder what is Xi thinking.

🎯 Pete's Investment Takeaway

The sectors still working: energy, defence, gold. The sectors still risky: airlines, cruise lines, consumer discretionary.

Income-generating portfolios with quality dividend stocks continue to outperform. Boring is beautiful in a war.

The US stock market has a history of bouncing back relatively quickly from past military conflicts, as long as oil prices don't stay too high for too long. That remains the key sentence of 2026.

Position. Don't predict.

One more thing before I go. 🙏

Dividend Market Genius is officially live and the response has been incredible. Over 250 of you have already signed up and honestly, I did not expect that in the first few days. Thank you. Really!

I could not have planned a better time for this to launch. The market is volatile, oil is at $90, and nobody knows what next week looks like. That is exactly the environment where a solid dividend strategy earns its keep. Cashflow does not care about headlines.

If you missed the webinar, the replay is here: 👉https://investwithpete.teachable.com/courses/dmg/lectures/65028151

The launch promo price ends this Sunday 15 Mar. After that it goes back to full price, no exceptions.

Grab it here before it closes: 👉 https://rebrand.ly/DMG500

And for everyone already inside DMG, your first live Zoom class is 27 Mar. More details coming soon. See you there. 🎓!

Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.