mixed signals

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These days, Trump is generating news cycle faster than my laundry…. lets break it down.

🫨 Trump's Mixed Signals: "Obliterate Everything" vs "Let's End This"

This is the headline that sums up the chaos

On one hand, Trump posted on Truth Social threatening to "completely obliterate" Iran's electric generating plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, and even floated destroying all desalination plants. He framed it as retribution for Iran's "killing of US soldiers and others over the last 47 years." He said he wants to "take the oil in Iran."

On the other hand, it reported that Trump told aides he is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed. The reasoning? Forcing Tehran to reopen the strait could extend the conflict beyond his preferred four to six week timeline. The administration's new calculus: cripple Iran's navy and missile capabilities, then leave the Hormuz problem to European and Gulf allies.

So which is it?

What it means for markets: This is peak "headline risk." Oil dropped about 1% in Asian market, with Brent pulling back to around $111.55 and WTI slipping to $102.14, as traders latched onto the "willing to end it" report. But here's the thing: every time markets have priced in de-escalation this month, Trump has reversed course within 48 hours. The April 6 energy strike deadline is still live. If you're trading oil, position sizing matters more than direction right now.

💥 Iran Strikes Kuwait: War Spills into the Gulf

The war just crossed another line. An Iranian drone strike hit a power and water desalination plant in Kuwait, killing an Indian worker and causing significant damage to the building.

This wasn't the first time. Kuwait has been subjected to repeated attacks since the war began on Feb 28. But this is the first confirmed civilian fatality from an Iranian strike on a neutral Gulf state during this conflict.

Iran claimed Israel was behind the attack, contradicting Kuwait's own attribution. Nobody is buying that.

Separately, the UAE reported intercepting 11 missiles and 27 UAVs launched from Iran in the past 24 hours. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted five ballistic missiles heading toward its Eastern Province.

What it means for markets: The war is no longer contained to Iran and Israel. When missiles are hitting Kuwait desalination plants and Saudi Arabia is intercepting ballistics, the entire Gulf is a conflict zone. This is terrible for regional infrastructure investment and it puts pressure on Gulf sovereign wealth funds to redirect spending toward defense. For investors, missile defense companies like RTX (maker of Patriot systems) and Lockheed Martin (THAAD) are direct beneficiaries.

📊 Markets Snapshot: A Month of Carnage

Let's zoom out and look at what one month of war has done.

Oil: Brent crude is up roughly 51% in March alone, the largest monthly surge on record. From $72.48 at end of February to around $111.55 today. Brent hit a high of $126 at one point during the month. WTI settled above $100 for the first time since 2022 on Monday.

Equities: The Dow and S&P 500 are each set for their worst month since September 2022. The Nasdaq is set for its worst month in a year. Monday's close: Dow +49.50 (45,216), S&P 500 down 0.39%, Nasdaq down 0.73%.

Gold: Safe haven demand has been relentless. Gold is trading around $4,550 per ounce. The war premium is real.

VIX: The "fear gauge" opened at 30.81 today, ranging between 29.33 and 31.32. For context, it was in the low 20s before the war. Anything above 30 signals the market is genuinely nervous.

Strait of Hormuz: Maritime traffic is down roughly 90% since the war began. Only about 150 vessels have transited since Feb 28, roughly what passes through on a single normal day. Iran is now charging up to $2 million per crossing.

What it means for markets: March 2026 will go down as one of the most volatile months in recent market history. The question for April is whether we get resolution (even partial) or further escalation. The April 6 energy strike deadline is six days away. That's your next inflection point.

📌 Pete's Take: The Off Ramp is There, But Can Anyone Find It?

Here's what I think is really going on.

The report about Trump being willing to end the war without Hormuz reopening is the most important signal of the day. No matter what strong words they said, it tells you the administration is looking for an exit. Four weeks of bombing has achieved most of the stated military objectives. Iran's air force is gone. Its navy is crippled. Major nuclear and missile facilities are destroyed. The political win is largely banked.

But there are three obstacles to the off ramp.

First, Iran says there are no negotiations. You can't negotiate a ceasefire with someone who says they're not talking to you. There are reports that Iran internally is split between those who want to negotiate and hardliners.

Second, the war has expanded beyond Iran. Houthis are firing at Israel. Iranian missiles are hitting Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Any ceasefire deal now needs to account for multiple theaters, not just Tehran. That's exponentially harder.

Third, Trump can't stop contradicting himself. "Let's end it" and "I'll obliterate everything" posted within hours of each other doesn't inspire confidence in any negotiating partner.

April 6 is everything. Six days until the energy strike deadline. Either Trump extends again (most likely), launches strikes on energy infrastructure (catastrophic for markets), or announces a framework deal (bullish). I'd put the odds at 60% extension, 25% escalation, 15% deal.

Gold still has legs. As long as the VIX is above 30 and the war is unresolved, safe haven flows keep coming. I wouldn't chase it here, but I wouldn't sell either.

Cash is not a coward's position. The 10 year is still paying you to wait. With this level of uncertainty, having dry powder for the post war opportunity is smart, not scared.

One month down. The shape of April will be decided this week.

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Stay sharp.

Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.