road to April 6

We have officially entered the 1st month since the US-Iran War

The Dow just entered correction territory. Oil is at levels we haven't seen since 2022. Israel hit Iranian nuclear sites. Iran fired cluster munitions at Tel Aviv and killed a civilian. And Trump just kicked the can down the road to April 6.

It's been one of the most consequential weeks of this entire war. Let me break down what happened and what it means for your portfolio heading into next week.

💣 Israel Strikes Iran's Nuclear Sites: The War Just Escalated

This is the story of the week. On Thu, Israel launched its first direct strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure since the war began.

The targets: the Arak heavy water reactor (described by the Israeli military as a "key plutonium production site for nuclear weapons") and the Ardakan yellowcake factory in Yazd (a facility used for producing raw materials for the uranium enrichment process). Israel also hit two major steel plants linked to the IRGC.

Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran will "exact a heavy price" for the attacks.

Here's where it gets really interesting. Trump had just extended the energy strike pause to April 6 to give diplomacy room. And then Israel goes and hits nuclear sites anyway. Araghchi specifically said the Israeli strikes "contradict" Trump's extension. That's a crack in the US and Israel coordination narrative worth watching.

What it means for markets: Nuclear site strikes represent a significant escalation. This is no longer just about degrading military capacity. It's about dismantling Iran's nuclear program entirely. That raises the stakes for Iranian retaliation and makes a diplomatic resolution harder. Expect the risk premium in oil and defense names to stay elevated. If Iran retaliates by targeting Gulf energy infrastructure, we could see Brent push past $120.

📉 NASDAQ Enters Correction Territory: Fifth Straight Weekly Decline

Friday was ugly. The NASDAQ officially enters into correction territory, down more than 10% from its February highs above 26,000.

The S&P 500 fell 1.67% to 6,368.85, a seven month low. The Nasdaq dropped 2.15% to 20,948. Tech got hammered again with Nvidia down 2.2%, Microsoft down 2.5%, Alphabet down 2.5%, and Meta losing 4%.

This was the S&P 500's fifth consecutive weekly decline, the longest losing streak since 2022.

The 10 year Treasury yield touched 4.48% intraday before settling around 4.42%, its highest level since July 2025. The bond market is screaming that energy driven inflation is real and rate cuts are off the table.

What it means for markets: The correction is a psychological milestone, but the real signal is the relentless weekly declines. Five straight weeks of selling tells you this isn't just headline driven volatility. It's a structural repricing of risk. Investors are rotating out of growth/tech and into energy and defense. If you're still overweight tech, this week was a painful reminder that the war premium isn't going away anytime soon.

🕊️ The Deadline: Trump Extends to April 6, Iran Says No Deal

On Wed, Trump extended the pause on striking Iran's energy infrastructure by 10 days, to April 6. His reasoning? Iran gave him "ships" as a goodwill gesture (reportedly allowing 10 oil tankers through Hormuz).

Trump says "talks are ongoing" and going "very well." Iran says the exact opposite.

Iran formally rejected the US 15 point peace plan and laid out five conditions of its own: a complete end to all US and Israeli "aggression and assassinations," concrete guarantees the attacks won't resume, war reparations, the war ending across all fronts (including Hezbollah), and formal recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

Araghchi told state TV: "No negotiations have happened with the enemy until now, and we do not plan on any negotiations." Iran's Consulate General in Mumbai added: "Iran will end the war at a time of its own choosing."

Pakistan continues to relay messages between Washington and Tehran, with Turkey and Egypt also involved in back channel communication.

What it means for markets: The April 6 deadline is the new line in the sand. But here's the thing: we've been here before. The original Friday deadline got extended. Iran's five conditions are essentially non starters for the US (especially war reparations and Hormuz sovereignty). This feels like both sides buying time rather than making real progress. For investors, this means at least 9 more days of uncertainty. Don't expect any resolution before April 6. Position for continued range bound volatility: Brent between $105 and $120, S&P between 6,200 and 6,500.

📌 Pete's Take: The Most Dangerous Week Yet

Alright, here's where I land.

This was the most consequential week of the war so far. Nuclear sites hit (this is crazy). IRGC Navy leadership decapitated. Cluster bombs on Tel Aviv. The market in correction. Oil at 2022 highs.

Let me be honest: the probability of a diplomatic resolution before April 6 is very low. Iran's five conditions are non starters. Israel is escalating independently. And Trump is playing the "talks are going great" card while the military campaign continues full speed.

Here's my playbook heading into Week 5:

Oil is still the compass. Brent at $112 and climbing. Below $100 means real de escalation. Above $120 means talks have fully collapsed and we're in a new phase. We're closer to the danger zone than the safe zone right now.

The correction is real but not a crash. It is painful if you bought the top, but the economy outside of energy is still functioning. This is a war premium correction, not a financial crisis. The key support to watch is 44,000 on the Dow and 6,200 on the S&P.

Cash is king. With the 10 year at 4.42% and climbing, short duration Treasuries and money market funds are paying you to wait. There is no shame in sitting on the sideline while the world figures out whether this war ends or escalates.

April 6 is the next major catalyst. Mark it on your calendar. That's when the energy strike pause expires. Either we get real progress, another extension (my base case), or full escalation. Plan your positioning around that date.

A crucial point to consider is that as the war continues, the market becomes increasingly resilient. Remember the Russia-Ukraine conflict that began in 2022? Initially, it caused significant market turbulence, but it has since receded into the background. The markets quickly rebounded, reaching new highs.

Stay sharp.

Replay of Invest With Pete Live Webinar!

And if you want to know latest trade ideas from the US-Iran War, catch the replay of the Trump’s Strategic Playbook webinar that I did this week!

We also went through 2 options strategy on the bullish stocks!

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The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.