the hardest hits are yet to come

Author

Pete Tan
March 04, 2026

Welcome to what is going to be a daily update from me on the Iran war. Every day I will cut through the noise, give you the 3 most important developments and tell you what it means for your money. (I hope to keep this up)

Let's get into it.

🔴 Story 1: "The Big Wave Is Coming"

Yesterday, Secretary Rubio stood in front of reporters and said plainly: "The hardest hits are yet to come."

Trump echoed the same on national TV. "We haven't even started hitting them hard. The big wave hasn't even happened yet."

To put that in perspective, the US has already struck over 1,000 targets in 4 days. Iran's navy has been destroyed. Their air force knocked out. Their radar systems gone. And they said they haven't even started the main assault yet? I wonder what is to come.

Realising that this is a war with weeks or months still to go, the market crashed hard yesterday with SP500 and NASDAQ down almost 1%.

⏰ Story 2: Hezbollah, UK and France Join In

What started as coordinated US-Israeli strikes on Iran has now pulled in Lebanon. Hezbollah fired missiles and drones into Israel on Monday, officially widening the theatre of conflict.

Iran has struck targets in at least 10 countries including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and even Cyprus. The US Embassy in Riyadh and Dubai were hit by drones too.

And in the latest development, UK and France are sending warships and air defence assets to the region after drone strikes on Cyprus.

Meanwhile it seems like UK and France are entering with defensive intent but these assets can be easily swing into offensive use when needed.

🛢️ Story 3: Strait of Hormuz Closed. Oil Goes Vertical

This is the one that keeps me up at night.

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially stopped. Iran declared it closed. Brent crude hit over $83 per barrel, up over 37% YTD. Natural gas in Europe surged nearly 40% on Mon alone.

Goldman Sachs put out a note explaining exactly what the oil price is telling us. Without supply disruption, fair value for Brent is around $65. The fact that it is trading at $83 tells you the market is pricing in roughly a 4 week disruption. If it goes longer, we are heading toward $100 and beyond.

Source: Goldman Sachs

Trump responded by saying the US will offer insurance for Gulf shipping and US Navy will escort tankers if needed. But the market isn't buying the calm. When you shut down the world's most important oil corridor, everything reprices.

On the commercial side, Amazon also disclosed that 2 of its data centres in the UAE and one in Bahrain were hit by Iranian drones. This war is no longer just about missiles and military bases. It is hitting commercial infrastructure now.

Over 1,900 flights were cancelled on Tue alone. More than 1 million passengers are now caught in travel chaos worldwide.

Dubai, one of the world's busiest transit hubs, is operating at a fraction of normal capacity. Airlines are getting hit from both sides. Fuel costs are spiking while their routes are being shut down. United, American and other major carriers are down 4 to 8% this week. This is a direct hit to any travel or airline exposure in your portfolio.

📊 What Markets Are Telling Us Right Now

Gold had an interesting session. It actually pulled back slightly on Tue even as oil surged. Why? Because higher oil means higher inflation which means the Fed might have to hold rates higher for longer, and higher rates are not great for gold. This is the tension the market is now navigating.

💡 Investment Takeaway

Here is the honest framework for where we are right now.

If this ends in 4 weeks as Trump projected: oil retreats, travel stocks bounce hard, markets recover. History shows the S&P 500 averages a 3.4% gain in the 6 months following major geopolitical events.

If the Strait stays closed beyond 4 to 6 weeks: oil pushes toward $100, inflation returns, rate cuts get pushed out and equity markets take another leg down.

My personal view? This conflict has at least 2 to 4 more weeks of escalation risk. Trump himself said it could last "four to five weeks." That's a LOT of uncertainty still ahead.

If you're overexposed to risk assets with no hedge, now is the time to think about positioning. Not panic sell. But position..

Do not make any hero bets right now. Position, don't predict.

I will be back tomorrow with more updates. Stay close. 👊

Tomorrow Thur 5 Mar at 9pm, I am going live for the official launch of Dividend Market Genius (DMG).

I built this course specifically for investors who want income that keeps coming in regardless of what the market is doing. Wars, rate hikes, recessions, volatility. Dividend investing is one of the few strategies that keeps paying you while everything else feels uncertain.

And right now with oil spiking, Iran war ongoing and markets swinging? Honestly I could not have picked a better week to launch this. 😅

Here is what to expect on the live webinar tomorrow:

  • I will walk you through exactly what DMG covers and why I built it.

  • I will also share why I think dividend investing is one of the most underrated strategies for investors right now.

  • And at the end there will be a one time promotional launch price that will only be available during this session.

This is not a hard sell. Come, learn, decide for yourself. But if you have been thinking about building a more resilient portfolio that generates real income, this is worth your Thursday evening.

See you tomorrow at 9pm. 💹

Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.