The War Has Started. Here's What You Need To Know.

I want to be upfront with you. This is not a normal market week. What happened over the weekend changes things significantly and I want to make sure you understand what is going on before markets open.

💣 What Happened

On Saturday February 28, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran. Operation "Epic Fury." Over 1,000 targets hit across 24 of Iran's 31 provinces in under 48 hours, including nuclear sites, missile facilities, military command centres, ships and submarines.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who ruled for 37 years, was killed in the strikes. That is a massive development. Iran's military chief was also killed.

Iran responded by launching waves of missiles and drones across the region, hitting 8 Gulf state nationas. Smoke was seen rising from Dubai International Airport and the iconic Burj Al Arab hotel was damaged. 3 American soldiers have been killed. Iran says it has struck 27 US military bases in the region (not yet verified).

As of this morning, combat operations are still ongoing. Trump said it is "ahead of schedule" and will continue "until all objectives are achieved." He has not defined what those objectives are.

This is not a skirmish. This is a war.

🛢️ What This Means For Oil

Here is the number you need to understand. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 13 to 14 million barrels of crude oil per day. That is about 20% of all global seaborne oil flows. Three quarters of those barrels go to China, India, Japan and South Korea.

Iran has already threatened to close the Strait. It even attacked his own nation’s ships.

Even before strikes began, oil was trading around $67 to $68 per barrel. Crypto futures markets that trade 24/7 showed oil jumping nearly 5% to around $71 over the weekend. If the Strait gets disrupted even partially, analysts are warning oil could spike well past $80 and potentially hit $100 per barrel.

That is not a small thing. Higher oil means higher inflation. Higher inflation means the Fed cannot cut rates. And that hits everything, your stocks, your mortgage, the price of groceries.

🥇 Gold Has Already Moved

Gold jumped from around $5,100 to over $5,300/oz in a matter of hours after the strikes began. One of the biggest single-session moves in years.

This is textbook. When geopolitical risk spikes, money flows into gold as a safe haven. Analysts are now talking about $5,500 to $6,000 per ounce if this conflict drags on for weeks.

I said this in previous newsletters that gold is your insurance policy. If you have none, this is a moment to reflect on that.

Pete's Take 🛡️: I have been watching this situation build for weeks. The 2 aircraft carriers deployed. The 10 to 15 day deadline Trump gave Iran in February. The diplomatic talks going nowhere. When I told you to pay attention to oil and gold as warning signals, this is exactly why. I knew something was coming. I just didn't know when.

📉 What About Stocks?

Markets are closed over the weekend but expect a rough open TONIGHT. Analysts are broadly expecting global equities to pull back 1% to 2% or more. The VIX was already elevated. It is about to spike harder.

The sectors to watch: oil majors like Exxon and Chevron will likely benefit from higher oil prices. Defense and aerospace stocks like Lockheed Martin and Boeing tend to get a bid in war environments. Airlines on the other hand are going to get hit with higher fuel costs and closed airspace across the Middle East is already disrupting hundreds of flights.

🔴 The Key Question For The Next 2 Weeks

Short conflict, Strait stays open = initial spike fades, markets recover.

Medium conflict of 3 to 5 weeks with Strait disrupted = oil above $80, equities down hard, inflation fears return.

Prolonged conflict with unclear endgame = nobody knows, and that uncertainty alone is enough to keep markets volatile for months.

The honest answer is nobody knows which path this takes. What matters now is that your portfolio is positioned for volatility, not panic, but preparation.

🎯 I'm Doing A Deep Dive For You

I am putting together a full breakdown of this conflict and exactly how to position your portfolio through it. What to buy. What to avoid. Where the opportunities actually are in a war environment.

I will be going LIVE soon to walk you through everything this Thurs! 5 Mar

The livestream link will be shared in my public Telegram channel. Join now if you haven't already so you don't miss it 👇

t.me/realinvestwithpete

Stay calm. Stay informed. This is exactly the kind of moment that separates investors who are prepared from those who panic.

Meanwhile:

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Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.