trump new timeline

Happy International Women's Day. 🌸

But somewhere in Tehran, bombs are still falling.

Week 1 is behind us. Week 2 starts tomorrow with markets reopening and a lot of unresolved questions. Before Monday comes, let me break down the 3 biggest things you need to know heading into the week.

☀️ Iran Apologises to Gulf Neighbours. But the Bombing Gets Worse.

Here is the one thing that actually felt like a development this weekend.

Iran's President Pezeshkian announced that Iran will stop targeting neighbouring Gulf countries unless attacks originate from their soil. He even apologised to Gulf nations for the strikes of the past week. (I didn’t see that coming)

On the surface, that sounds like a de-escalation signal. And markets may read it that way on Monday morning.

But Iran is not stopping. They fired their latest wave of missile strikes at Israel on Saturday. Tehran is still being bombed around the clock. The US just moved a B-1 bomber to a UK airbase for what officials are calling the most intense phase of strikes yet.

So what is really happening? Iran is trying to reduce the number of fronts it is fighting on. It does not want send every Gulf state onto the US side. That is a tactical adjustment, not a peace signal.

Do not get fooled by the headline. 🎯

🇷🇺 Russia Is Actively Helping Iran. This Changes Everything.

This is the development that Wall Street has not fully priced in yet.

US intelligence sources confirmed last week that Russia is feeding Iran real-time intelligence on the positions of American troops, ships and aircraft. Putin and Iran's president held a phone call. The Kremlin confirmed they will "continue contacts." Iran's own foreign minister said Russia and China are helping "politically and in other ways."

Think about what this means practically. Every time the US moves a carrier group or positions a strike package, Iran potentially knows about it. That makes this operation harder, longer, and potentially more expensive.

UAE and Qatar just announced they are cutting production after Straits of Hormuz is fully blocked, and Russia has a direct financial incentive to keep this going. The Kremlin said they are seeing "a significant increase in demand for Russian energy resources" because the Strait is closed. Every week the Strait stays shut, Russia earns more from oil. They want this dragging on. 🇷🇺 

This war is no longer just a US vs Iran story. It is becoming a proxy conflict with a cold war flavour.

📅 The White House Finally Gave a Timeline. Sort Of.

The White House told reporters this week that Operation Epic Fury may run four to six weeks total.

That is the first time any timeline has been put on the table. Military officials were careful to highlight that it is "at minimum".

Four to six weeks from 28 Feb will put us at late March to mid April. That is the window markets should now be planning around.

Here is why that number matters for investors. If the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed for another 3 to 5 weeks, the oil supply disruption will start showing up directly in the next earnings reports. Airlines, logistics companies, consumer goods manufacturers, chemical companies, all of them will start warning on margins. Earnings season starts in April. The timing is uncomfortable.

Qatar's energy minister already warned this week that if the conflict runs a few more weeks, oil could go to $150 per barrel. At that level, we are talking about a global growth shock. Not a correction. A proper recession signal.

📊 What You Need to Watch When Markets Open Monday

Oil closed last Friday above $90.90 for WTI, and Brent above $92. That is a 36% gain in a single week , the biggest weekly move since oil futures trading began in 1983.

Here are the three triggers I am watching on Monday:

First, will Iran's announcement about stopping Gulf strikes actually hold? If it does, oil may pull back slightly on reduced regional risk. That could give markets a small relief bounce. Do not chase it.

Second, watch the CPI inflation data on Tuesday. If energy costs are already showing up in that print, the Fed is stuck. No rate cuts coming. That removes one of the main supports that markets have been leaning on all year.

Third, watch for any diplomatic back channel opens before the Trump and Xi summit on 31 Mar. China has a massive incentive to mediate here. They import 20% of their oil through the Strait. Their economy cannot absorb $150 oil either. If China gets involved diplomatically, that is the first real off ramp we have seen.

🧠 Pete's Take: What Week 2 Looks Like

Here is my honest read going into Monday.

Week 1 was the shock. Week 2 will be the grind.

The initial panic selling is mostly done. What comes next is more methodical. Markets will be recalibrating earnings forecasts, growth projections, and inflation expectations every single day based on oil prices and war headlines.

The portfolios that are holding up best right now are the ones built around income and resilience. Energy, defence, gold, dividend paying companies with strong cash flows that do not need to borrow to grow.

That is not a coincidence. That is the whole point of building a robust portfolio before the world gets noisy.

If you are feeling nervous looking at your portfolio this morning, the question is not "should I sell everything?" The question is "am I positioned for what the next 4 to 6 weeks actually look like?"

That is the real work. And it is exactly what we do inside the community every week. 💪

Stay sharp. Position, don't predict.

One more thing before I go. 🙏

Dividend Market Genius is officially live and the response has been incredible. Over 250 of you have already signed up and honestly, I did not expect that in the first few days. Thank you. Really!

I could not have planned a better time for this to launch. The market is volatile, oil is at $90, and nobody knows what next week looks like. That is exactly the environment where a solid dividend strategy earns its keep. Cashflow does not care about headlines.

If you missed the webinar, the replay is here: 👉https://investwithpete.teachable.com/courses/dmg/lectures/65028151

The launch promo price ends this Sunday 15 Mar. After that it goes back to full price, no exceptions.

Grab it here before it closes: 👉 https://rebrand.ly/DMG500

And for everyone already inside DMG, your first live Zoom class is 27 Mar. More details coming soon. See you there. 🎓!

Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.