UAE leaving

🛢 UAE LEAVES OPEC

UAE announced it will exit OPEC+ effective May 1. This is a big deal.

For decades, OPEC has been the group that managed global oil supply. Members agreed on production quotas. They controlled the taps. That is how oil prices stayed in a range.

Now UAE walks out. No more quotas. They can pump as much as they want.

Not coincidentally, the exit frees the UAE from group production quotas. Meaning it now has greater flexibility to increase output and expand its role across crude, petrochemicals and natural gas markets.

And not surprisingly, officials signaled the shift is aimed at positioning the country for long term global energy demand growth.

And I suspect making lots of money.

Smart.

Pete's Take 👇 When a major producer breaks free of quotas, supply goes up. When supply goes up, prices very likely drop. Most retail investors will panic when oil cracks and dump the whole sector. Wrong move.

The smart play is owning the oil major with the most efficient balance sheet. The one that keeps paying you dividends while weaker names crack. The one that comes out of the cycle stronger.

I know which oil company is best positioned and which one has the most efficient balance sheet when prices drop. And they very likely will when UAE kicks it into gear.

🏛 POWELL'S LAST DANCE

Tonight, Jerome Powell steps up for what is widely expected to be his last FOMC meeting as Fed chair. His term ends in May.

The rate decision itself? Almost a non event. Markets are pricing in 100% odds of no change. Rates stay at 3.5% to 3.75%.

But the tone of his statement matters a lot.

This is not just Powell speaking to today's market. He is also setting the stage for the next chair, Kevin Warsh, who takes over for the June meeting. Whatever Powell signals tonight gets baked into how investors read Warsh's first move.

Watch for two things. One, how worried is the Fed about energy driven inflation now that oil has been and remained elevated. Two, does Powell hint at any path for cuts, or does he keep the door fully shut.

Pete's Take 👇 Forget trying to predict what Powell will say. The market does that for a living and still gets it wrong half the time. What matters is your portfolio's behaviour AFTER the statement.

If he sounds hawkish, growth stocks wobble and dividends hold. If he sounds dovish, the whole market rips and dividends still pay you. Notice the pattern? Cash flow does not care which way the Fed leans.

This is the whole point.

📊 OVERNIGHT WRAP

Wall Street took a small breather after record highs. Nothing scary, just a healthy step back.

S&P 500 closed down 0.5% at 7,138. Nasdaq slipped almost 1% on a chip selloff after a WSJ report flagged OpenAI missing its own revenue targets. Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Oracle all in the red.

Pete's Take 👇 While chips and small caps got hit, dividend strategy with options did their job. Quiet and Paying. This is exactly why cash flow investing matters more in noisy weeks like this.

If you want to learn how to build a portfolio that generates income whether the market rips or gets smoked, Dividend Market Genius is where I teach this in detail.

🎯 DMG LIVE THIS THU

Join me this Thu for the next DMG Live Webinar where I go through the main strategies.

And if you miss the Live, you can watch the recording and join us for the next Live too. It is not just a one off course but continuous teaching through multiple sessions.

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UAE shaking up oil. Powell handing the stage to Warsh. Chips wobbling on AI doubts. The headlines will keep coming.

Your portfolio does not need to react to every one of them. It just needs to pay you while you watch the show.

That is what we build inside DMG. See you on the inside!

Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.