war is ending?

Yesterday was one of the most extraordinary trading days of this entire war.

When I went for my night run, the market was still down but by the time I was back, the whole market was green and $1.7 trillion was added to global stock markets. Then Iran called Trump a liar. And half of it vanished.

Welcome to the Iran war. Where every day is a new world.

Let me tell you exactly what happened and what it means for the five most important days in this conflict so far.

🔄 THE TRUMP U-TURN. YESTERDAY'S BOMBSHELL EXPLAINED.

On Monday, Trump posted in all-caps on Truth Social.

He then instructed the Department of War to pause all strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days.

Trump told reporters that both sides are keen to "make a deal" and that there are already "major points of agreement." The goal remains stopping Iran from having a nuclear weapon, he said.

Then Iran denied everything. Iran's official Fars news agency said Monday that the regime in Tehran was not engaged in any direct negotiations with the US nor through intermediaries, directly contradicting Trump's claim of productive conversations.

So we have Trump saying "great talks, major progress." Iran saying "what talks?" Israel saying "we are continuing to strike Iran and Lebanon." And markets swinging 1,000 points on a single social media post.

The dramatic u-turn by Trump came just two days after he said the United States would "obliterate" Iran's power plants, and barely a day after he had talked about "winding down" the war.

Pete's Take 👇

This is the pattern the world has been watching for 25 days. Every time Trump faces economic and political pressure from rising oil prices, he pivots toward peace talk. Then Iran escalates. Then Trump escalates back. Then the cycle repeats. Yesterday was simply the most dramatic version of this cycle yet. The question for the next five days is whether this pause produces a real framework or just another temporary relief rally that reverses on the next bad headline. Iran denying the talks is a very concerning signal.

📈 $1.7 TRILLION IN FIVE MINUTES. HOW MARKETS REACTED.

The market reaction was extraordinary in both speed and scale.

In the time it takes for me to complete my evening run (and I think I ran pretty fast) , Trump added $1.7 trillion to stocks and pushed oil down by about $17, or approximately 15%. Then Iran had reportedly called him a liar, and half those gains vanished.

At the close, markets held onto meaningful gains. The Dow jumped 631 points, or 1.38%, to close at 46,208. The S&P 500 rose 1.15% to 6,581. The Nasdaq gained 1.38% to settle at 24,189.

Oil told the real story of the day's volatility. Brent crude tumbled to $94 per barrel on the news before recovering to $98 per barrel.

Gold prices were down more than 2% continuing a recent slump after a meteoric rise in prior months. The US dollar index moved lower, while Treasury yields fell as investors bought bonds.

But the fine print matters. Markets retreated from their initial enthusiasm after the IDF said it was continuing strikes on Tehran, and it became unclear whether Iran agreed with Trump's version of events.

Pete's Take 👇

Yesterday proved two things. First, the market desperately wants this war to end and will price any hint of peace aggressively. Second, when reality does not match the headline, the reversal is equally violent. The 1,000-point Dow futures spike that became a 631-point close tells you exactly how fragile this relief rally is. It is built entirely on hope, not on any confirmed ceasefire or Strait reopening. One bad headline this week erases all of yesterday's gains.

🎯 Pete's Investment Takeaway

Day 25. The most dramatic single trading day of this war.

Here is where we genuinely stand right now. A five-day pause on US energy infrastructure strikes. No confirmed ceasefire. No Strait reopening. Iran denying the talks. Israel still bombing. Mines still in the waterway. And Goldman Sachs still forecasting $110 oil.

The relief rally is real. But it is fragile.

If you were already positioned in energy and defence, you do not need to do anything dramatic today. The positions that served you for 25 days continue to serve you until a formal ceasefire is confirmed and the Strait physically reopens.

If you have been sitting on cash waiting for the shopping opportunity, this week is when the watch list matters most. A genuine peace deal would cause violent rotation back into growth stocks. The stocks that have been crushed by energy costs and rate uncertainty. Have that list ready.

And gold. Yes it has dropped sharply from its highs. But nothing about the structural case for gold has changed. Inflation is still elevated. The Fed is still stuck. Geopolitical uncertainty has not disappeared. A sharp pullback in a bull market is not the end of a bull market. It is an opportunity for those who believe in the thesis.

Five days countdown. Watch whether Iran makes any public acknowledgement of talks. Watch whether any tanker successfully transits the Strait. Those three things will tell you whether this peace move is real.

Position. Don't predict.

Pete 🙏

📣 FREE LIVE WEBINAR THIS THURSDAY

Everything I just wrote about, I will break down live on Thursday night for everyone.

The Trump U-turn. What it means for oil and markets. What to do with your portfolio now. And what the next move looks like whether this ends in peace or drags on further.

This is open to everyone. Free. No experience needed.

📅 Thursday 26 Mar 🕘 9pm sharp

🔗 https://us06web.zoom.us/j/83531931079?pwd=GS7R78hHTTt91l8bv1jCYyKIOQLBjV.1

See you Thursday. 🙏

Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.