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This week, markets have been flip-flopping around

Volatility, as uncomfortable as it feels, is also where opportunity shows up. And even though everyone else is convinced the sky’s falling, the landscape isn’t nearly as dire as it looks on the surface.

Let’s break it down.

🧭 The Market Is Jittery… but Not Broken

The vibe this week? Nervous. Tech has been getting tossed around. Sentiment feels like a wet towel.

But here’s the nuance:
The entire market is not going down. Just the loudest part of it is.

Take a look at the 1-month sector performance snapshot:

• Energy: +5.21%

• Healthcare: +3.93%

• Financials, Communications, Utilities: modest red

• Tech, Cyclicals, Industrials: deeper red 🔴 

This isn’t a market-wide meltdown, it’s sector rotation. Money isn’t fleeing the market… it’s moving inside it.

Energy and Healthcare are quietly acting like the grown-ups in the room while Tech throws a tantrum.

That distinction matters.

🎯 NVDA: The Whole Week Hinges on One Earnings Report

Let’s not sugarcoat it:
This market is waiting on Nvidia.
Everything else (macro narratives, traders’ emotions, rotation) is secondary until NVDA’s numbers drop.

Options traders are pricing a ±7% post-earnings move, which translates into a mind-blowing $320 billion potential swing in market cap. That’s more than the size of many entire sectors.

Why this matters:

• NVDA is the heartbeat of the AI hardware boom

• It’s ~8% of the S&P 500

• It anchors ETF flows

• It sets the tone for AI spending into 2026

Technically speaking:
The 8-EMA crossed below the 21-EMA for the first time in 7 months. That's a caution flag. And the recent move down has been fast. Too fast.

Which is why I think a relief bounce is due — especially if Nvidia delivers.

Pete’s NVDA Scenarios

If NVDA beats & guides strong:

• Tech pops

• Market bounces toward resistance

• Sentiment stabilizes

• Oversold AI names get airflow again

If NVDA disappoints:

• Tech likely takes another leg lower

• Rotation into non-tech accelerates

• AI trade expectations reset

🧮 Don’t Forget: Jobs Data Could Shift the Fed’s December Decision

As if NVDA wasn’t enough, we’ve also got the non-farm payrolls (jobs report) coming right after the market open.

This one has teeth.

The Fed is split on a December rate cut and the job numbers will act as the tie-breaker.

What the market expects:

• Consensus forecasts point to a +223,000 payroll gain

• Unemployment around 4.3%

• Signs of cooling in the labor market

Why it matters:

• Weak jobs → December rate cut more likely

• Strong jobs → Fed delays cuts, yields stay firm

A soft report combined with a strong NVDA?
That’s the cocktail for a strong relief rally.

A hot jobs print and weak NVDA?
That’s how you get a market that stays choppy through year-end.

The Fed is watching this report closely and so should you.

🪙 Crypto Corner: Bitcoin Breaks Bear Territory

Bitcoin briefly broke below $90k, officially entering a 20%+ drawdown from its highs.

Drivers:

• Rate-cut uncertainty

• Macro nerves

• Risk-off flows

• Institutional outflows accelerating

In short:
Long-term thesis remains intact, short-term turbulence very real.

🇨🇳 China Is Coming for AI Leadership

While U.S. tech has been busy selling off, China’s AI industry is stepping on the gas.

• Moonshot AI’s Kimi K2 Thinking model beat several Western benchmarks

• Costs run 4× cheaper than GPT-5

• Alibaba cut pricing on Qwen3-Max by half

• Airbnb’s CEO said his company uses Chinese models because they’re cheaper and faster

• Nvidia’s Jensen Huang himself said: “China is going to win the AI race.”

This isn’t noise, it’s structural.
Cost-efficient AI models reshape the economics of the entire industry.
Worth watching closely.

🧠 Pete’s Playbook for the Week

1. NVDA = The Catalyst

Everything hinges on Wednesday's earnings. Period.

2. Expect a Relief Bounce if Tech Holds the Line

A fast downside move often snaps back even if only temporarily.

3. Keep Lean Exposure to the Winners

Non-Tech sectors deserve a seat at the table right now.

4. Same Story in Crypto: Position Size, Not Hope

Turbulence is normal so position accordingly.

5. Watch Jobs Data Like a Hawk

It may decide whether the Fed cuts in December or punts to 2026.

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Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.