why is it going up?

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📈 NEW RECORD HIGHS. AGAIN.

The S&P 500 broke through 7,200 for the first time ever last week. Yesterday it pushed even higher.

Both the S&P and Nasdaq just recorded their strongest monthly performance since 2020.

There are two camps right now. One camp is calling this misplaced euphoria. Their argument: oil above $100, Fed in wait and see mode, inflation sticky, and we are sleepwalking into a recession.

The other camp: profits, profits, profits. Q1 earnings have been strong, and that is what is driving the rally.

Pete's Take 👇 The market does not care what should be happening. It cares about what is actually happening in the future. And right now, that is record earnings, falling oil, and ceasefire optimism. I am not chasing record highs. But I am also not selling into them. The trend is up. Stay positioned.

🛢 OIL CRACKED. THE CEASEFIRE HELD.

WTI dropped almost 4% yesterday to settle at $97. Brent fell to $106.

What changed? A ship made it through the Strait of Hormuz under US protection. Defense Secretary Hegseth said the ceasefire is holding. And Trump signaled progress toward a final agreement with Iran.

Oil is still high enough to hurt households and squeeze airlines. But it is no longer climbing. That is a big shift.

Pete's Take 👇 This is the part of the cycle where the peace trade starts to wake up. Airlines, consumer discretionary, industrials, quality growth. The names that have been beaten down by fuel costs and consumer fear. If oil keeps falling, these are the ones that bounce hardest. Watch the oil chart, not the headlines.

💰 EARNINGS SPLIT: A BEAT IS NOT ENOUGH ANYMORE

This earnings season is showing us something important. While the semis are the biggest winner by far. There are some interesting ones too.

Pinterest popped 15% on strong forward guidance. Anheuser Busch jumped 6% on its first volume growth in three years. Apple climbed 3% last week on a solid Q2 outlook.

But PayPal fell 9% even though it beat earnings AND revenue. Why? Weak Q2 guidance. Duolingo dropped 13% on soft user numbers. Palantir slipped 3% despite beating estimates.

Pete's Take 👇 This is the lesson every investor needs to learn. Beats do not equal rallies. The market does not buy the past quarter. It buys the next one. Always read the guidance. Always read the call. The headline number is the trap.

🎯 What this means for you

3 takeaways heading into the rest of the week:

1. The trend is up. Do not fight it. Do not FOMO too.

2. Energy and tech still working. The ceasefire is fragile. Keep some hedges.

3. This is a stockpickers market. Guidance matters more than beats.

🎙 Invest with Pete LIVE

I am going live on 7 May (Thur) at 9pm SGT to walk through what I am doing in my portfolio with markets at record highs.

Here is what we will cover:

📈 Why the market keeps grinding up despite the war

🛢 The peace trade playbook from here

💰 How I am reading guidance and earnings calls

🛡 How to hedge without selling your winners

Free for everyone.

Markets at all time highs is exactly when most investors get it wrong.

See you on Thurs

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Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.