why is market down?

1. Government reopens & markets cheer

After a record-setting 43 day shutdown, the United States Congress passed a funding bill and Donald Trump signed it, officially ending the longest federal shut-down in U.S. history.

Markets responded, the markets have a brief rally before heading to the dumpster again. But why?

The reopening means back-to-normal flow of economic data (jobs, inflation, etc), removing one big “black box” risk from investor models. And when uncertainty drops, risk assets often get a boost. However, this time the boost might not be welcome as jobs are likely to look weak.

Another big factor is drying liquidity. Something that I have been alerting investors for sometime. If you don’t know what it is, join me tonight when I’m sharing it again.

2. Rate-cut hopes (and doubts) swirl

With the shutdown ending and data flow resuming, the Federal Reserve is in focus. A Reuters poll shows most economists expect a rate cut in December amid signs of labour-market softness.

At the same time, the dollar slipped and U.S. Treasury yields dipped as reopening optimism settled in. Right now, we are 50/50 odds on the Dec rate cut.

Key takeaway: If the Fed does cut, it could be a short-term tailwind for stocks and risk-assets. But if policy stays hawkish (despite the shutdown ending and poor jobs) markets may need to buckle up for more volatility.

3. Gold rallies amid policy/data optimism

Precious-metal alert: Spot gold jumped ~2% to retake $4100/oz as reopening optimism and lower yields combined to boost its appeal.

It’s an interesting situation: Stocks hitting records, yet gold moving up too. That tells me investors are hedging a little. Enjoying the upside, while still anchoring for risk.
In plain terms: When both stocks and gold move together, it's a signal of a complex market mood. Optimism tempered with caution.

🧩 What this means for you

• If you’re invested in U.S. equities: This could be a favourable backdrop (reopening, clearer data). But keep an eye on rate move risk if the Fed signals “not yet”, you may see a pull-back.

• If you hold alternatives (commodities, gold, etc): The gold move may hint at a subtle shift toward hedging. Consider whether this fits your portfolio horizon.

• If you’re global (Asia-Singapore included): U.S. developments still ripple hard globally. A stronger-than-expected cut or weaker jobs data could change the game quickly.

• With all these uncertainty, going for yield play might make some sense here and that is exactly what I am looking at doing tonight

🚨 Invest With Pete – LIVE Tonight (Open to All!)
9:00 PM SGT — Zoom link below 👇

Just a heads-up: we’re capped at 300 seats and it always fills up, so log in early to secure your spot.

Tonight we’re diving into:
📉 Why the market isn’t rising even after the US govt reopened
📝 My current trades + what I’m watching next
💰 A dividend play that could generate up to 17% return in a year
(Yes — I’ll reveal the stock and how to take advantage of it.)

If you’ve been waiting for a session with real, actionable insights — this is the one.
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See you tonight!

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Happy Hunting!

Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.