WW3?

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Over the weekend, global markets were rocked by one of the most serious geopolitical escalations in years.

🇺🇸 Trump confirmed that U.S. bombers launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities — the most significant attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq war. The operation, dubbed “Rising Lion”, also reportedly targeted senior Iranian officials and military infrastructure.

🛑 Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which nearly 20% of global oil flows. Though still pending final approval by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, the very idea of closing the Strait has sent shockwaves through energy markets.

📈 Oil prices have surged — Brent crude is now up 30% from May lows, trading around $77 per barrel. Why is this important?

• 🚗 Higher oil = higher fuel and logistics costs

• 🛒 That trickles into everything = inflation may bounce back

• 💸 Which gives the Fed a reason to pause or delay rate cuts

This may become the defining macro wildcard for the second half of 2025.

⚖️ Other big questions we need to consider:

🔹 Will this delay or derail Trump’s big domestic plans — especially his tax cuts or “One Big, Beautiful Bill”?
🔹 Can Trump hold his coalition together? Many MAGA voices (like Bannon, Tucker) oppose intervention, while GOP hawks support the strikes.
🔹 Could this undermine U.S. trade talks with Europe and China — just as his tariff deadlines approach?
🔹 Did Trump legally overstep by bypassing Congress to order these strikes?

The world is watching what happens next.

📊 What I’m Watching Closely:

🔍 Will oil spike above $80?
🔍 Will inflation bounce back and stall the Fed’s easing plans?
🔍 Will Trump’s domestic agenda be forced into second place?
🔍 Will the market look past the fear — or get dragged into it?

This is exactly the kind of macro event that can cause overreactions — and create opportunities.

For example, we previously discusssed about COIN as a good trade idea under all these uncertainties and it has done very well. The COIN options clocking in over $10k in profits

And that’s what we’ll be discussing at length — how to think, act, and trade through it calmly and profitably — in our next SMG Live Webinar on Tues

If you want to join in our Live Webinar and find out the next trade ideas

👉 Join SMG here and get $100 OFF with promo code “TARIFFS”

✅ Access all the replays, trade ideas, indicators, and live sessions.

Let’s stay focused and win through the noise.

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Pete
Invest with Pete

🚨‼️ By the way, I’ll never PM anyone on telegram or any other social media platforms. If you receive any “Pete” messaging you, these are scammers impersonating me. Pls beware!

The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Readers should seek their own independent financial advice before making any investment decisions. Please note that while Pete is a portfolio manager, the opinions expressed in this newsletter are his own and do not represent the views of any organization. Always perform your own research and due diligence before investing.